Picking Oscar winners is not a logical process. Academy voters are schizophrenic in their choices and predicting their behavior is next to impossible. They will choose winners based on performance or throw away an Oscar because they think someone is old enough to get one. If a nominee is a well known figure in Hollywood and getting so old that he or she may never be nominated again, they are almost guaranteed to win. That will happen this year with director Robert Altman.
In recent years voters have been bombarded by marketing campaigns that surpass political ads, and the Academy has proven susceptible to them. It is too bad that the company that instigated Oscar pandering, Miramax, has lessened its push for “In the Bedroom,” which should win this year but won’t.
The following is a partial list of nominees I believe will win, followed in italics by my personal picks.
BEST PICTURE
A Beautiful Mind
In the Bedroom
BEST DIRECTOR
Robert Altman
Robert Altman
BEST ACTOR
Russell Crowe
Tom Wilkinson
BEST ACTRESS
Sissy Spacek
Sissy Spacek
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ben Kingsley
Ian McKellen
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Connelly
Helen Mirren
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Memento
The Royal Tenenbaums
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Beautiful Mind
Ghost World
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
Shrek
Shrek
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Monsters, Inc.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Paul McCartney “Vanilla Sky”
Paul McCartney “Vanilla Sky”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
A.I. Artificial Intelligence
Staff Writer Steve Allan can be contacted at: [email protected]